Tuesday, 21 April 2009

stress tests

L: 2% S:58% G: 60% N: -57% ~ $D -40% $G 42% $V 1% $P 2%

Its interesting to note how the market chatter has been a lot more negative today, no result from the US stress tests appear to be a satisfactory outcome; they all pass, then the test was meaningless and too soft, they fail and its a sign of weakness.

The Raven also has heard the resurfacing of two ugly rumours that he truly hopes have no foundation, further nationalisations in the US and that Bernanke wouldn't get reappointed. This is based on comments from Volker, the fact he's trying to back seat drive after being so far removed for so long is pretty disappointing. There cannot be a shadow of a doubt that Bernanke is the man for the job, I don't see how Volkers high interest rates to kill inflation knowledge would be of any use, or that he has any particular insight into the structure and stresses of either the economy or the financial system.

First thing this morning the Raven took profits on his longs, he thinks there is enough uncertainty for another sell off and his gut feels that we've run out of steam, if today confirms yesterdays very negative price action (finishing down 4.2% and on the days lows). Its also interesting to see that oil has taken a pounding in the last couple of days as well. The Raven thinks the EUR should trade down to its years lows.

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