Wednesday, 29 April 2009

FOMC thoughts

a big nothing done, if GDP numbers make no difference the Raven doubts the FED is going to do anything to rock the boat, especially on Obama's 100th day in office; in addition this market seems to have had shock fatigue, its all a big mehhhh. However this level of complacency is a little worrying given the potential for a W shaped recovery. That and the feeling that the second order effects of unemployment in the double digits doesn't seem to be priced in. All the chat is about thin inventories and robust consumer demand. The Raven could easily imagine a world of over capacity, where unemployment remained relatively high and demand remained sluggish. A positive second derivative is not the same as a recovery.

Are the EU mad? what a bunch of tools, they couldn't organise a piss up in Belgium so why do they think that anything they could achieve in HF regulation would be a positive? In addition the biggest failure in the crisis was an insurer, again how many HFs have taken state aid? uhm it rhymes with Robert De Niro...

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