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Friday, 3 May 2013

Why Austerity?

AusterityUK and AusterityEU are two different animals.

They often get lumped together although they are very different.

Peripherals really only have a few choices;
1) "austerity" - where they show some budget constraint and agree to try to close their budget deficit in the short to medium term, with the implicit financial support of Germany and support of their banking system from EU institutions.
2) default/restructuring with or without euro exit
3) euro exit and devaluation (which is a de facto default)

To be clear, a country like Spain or Italy already have a bond market strike. 

The market is not willing to loan money to these countries without there being implicit backstops and ECB support. 

Germany allows ECB and EU support under the condition that there is fiscal constraint. People can argue whether Germany's policy is correct or not, but unless you pay taxes in Germany and are a voter you really have little right to comment.

Many commentators say austerity is failing, and that peripherals should take a different course. That is easy to say, but meaningless.

They refuse to be explicit on the alternative given the constraints. ie. closed bond markets and German finance on conditions of restraint. If politically they are unwilling to leave the euro or restructure, then there really is no other option.

To argue that Germany should agree to fiscal transfers regardless is either naive or dishonest. For fiscal transfers to have any legitimacy there has to be democratic support in both countries. It also means giving up fiscal sovereignty. 

Unless peripherals are willing to have their budgets agreed at an EU level and impose reforms to bring them into line with Germany then  pleading for transfers without conditions is really are just pie in the sky/begging.

Peripheral politicians need to be bold and take responsibility. Blaming Germany and the markets while they have depression level unemployment is feeble. They need to give up fiscal sovereignty or leave the euro.

Tuesday, 9 April 2013

$JCP update

The stock traded 90mm shares today. there are only 220mm shares outstanding. PS own ~40mm of them.

The stock fell ~12%.

That isn't surprising given the recent pounding. Bad news already baked in there.

Most of the volume was earlier in the day and tailed off. I expect it to be heavy tomorrow. People will have taken liquidity in the stock.

If there is a bigger seller out, they will have backed off when the price gave way.

The fundamentals are awful. Chatter today of further sales decline.

Ron Johnson leaving and being replaced by the old CEO Ullman. Although "news" this isn't really new information/insight.

The last few quarters have shown that RJ's strategy was floundering, he didn't have the humility to understand or accept that. His loudest cheer leader has thrown him under the bus.

I'm not saying it can't ever happen, I just don't think it will. I don't think this is a firm that is going to get bought out. Too much risk, not room to leverage the balance sheet (if you were mad enough to want to put financial leverage onto a recovery story that has a tonne of operational leverage at this point).

Why pay a premium to get control?


Thursday, 28 February 2013

Herbalife

$HLF +7.5%.

$JCP is -17% today.

Ackman is short the former and long the latter.

Zerohedge blogged Ackman's position list according to his 13F filing.

If I were Bill Ackman's, I would be bricking it.

JCP's move is fundamental. The company's results were very poor. 

It seems as if the superstar manager that Ackman spent so much time praising suffers from the same blindspots as he does. Massive overconfidence and an apparent unwillingness to change course even when data and events contradict their model of the world.

As a manager this is bad. As an investor this is lethal. 

The biggest and most dramatic blow ups occur when overconfidence and a stubborn reluctance to change your view meet the market.

The market is telling Mr. Ackman he is wrong.

You can't change your mind every time a position ticks against you, but there should always be a fixed regular periods in both price and time that one re-evaluates the investment thesis. Buying a stock that falls 25% before it begins to rise, is not "early", it is wrong. And looking at Ackman's investment record it appears he's made plenty of mistakes, yet seems to leave himself no room for error.

Being a concentrated investor has its merits, however if you are shorting and using leverage then that concentration becomes a weakness. Other traders and investors are now talking about what he holds, that is chilling. 

I've bought Herbalife today, because I think he is wrong, the chart looks good and it makes a lot of sense that other investors begin to see that too. 

The more noise and adverse price action he faces the tougher his position becomes and the more likely he is to face redemption requests and be forced to liquidate.

Time to buckle up, it's about to get bumpy.