tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.comments2014-08-22T00:06:40.845+01:00BlackRavenBlackRavenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05896472586470597474noreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-5855996594969072402013-01-25T19:04:23.331+00:002013-01-25T19:04:23.331+00:00The alternative for Greece was immediately balanci...The alternative for Greece was immediately balancing their budget. ie bigger cuts. <br /><br />States do not have some inherent right to spend as much money as they like, they have to finance it. <br /><br />The Greek economy is in trouble because it is massively uncompetitive, not because there is too little spending by the state. <br /><br />One only has to look at the rail system, to pharmacies or the plethora of state sponsored oligopolies to see the absurd level of protectionism and cronyism at every level of the Greek economy.<br /><br />Who else should pay taxes to fund Greek spending if not Greek citizens??BlackRavenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05896472586470597474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-59134837517730569492012-12-28T06:21:08.033+00:002012-12-28T06:21:08.033+00:00The austerity measures demanded by France and Germ...The austerity measures demanded by France and Germany in return for two massive bailout packages, totaling 240 billion euros, have ripped holes in the Greek safety net and plunged the country into a recession of near-Great Depression dimensions.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.rateswaprefunds.co.uk/" rel="nofollow">Click here.</a><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05497370164344294353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-33797146606720116542012-05-25T11:53:50.630+01:002012-05-25T11:53:50.630+01:00Glad you're still around. Been light at my pl...Glad you're still around. Been light at my place too.<br /><br />BR, you being a finance whizz, you don't happen to be able to get your hands on a spreadsheet that can calculate APR on loan agreements under the new EC directive rules do you?Steven_Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05029437876479574883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-52389290886087903262012-01-09T13:13:56.024+00:002012-01-09T13:13:56.024+00:00Sorry for the late response, I hope my reply didn&...Sorry for the late response, I hope my reply didn't get stuck in a spam filter or something.BlackRavenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05896472586470597474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-30364345109196205432011-12-22T00:56:00.478+00:002011-12-22T00:56:00.478+00:00I sent you an email with NatWest attachments. I n...I sent you an email with NatWest attachments. I noticed that the cost/income ratios for RBS & NatWest are higher than other UK banks and rising.<br /><br />Thru June 2011, RBS’s cost:income ratio was 63.6% compared with 51.9% in the first half of 2010. Excluding the gain on redemption of own debt and the additional PPI provision, the cost:income ratio was 58.0% compared with 53.8% in the first half of 2010. <br /><br />NatWest's income ratio was 78.9% compared with 66.4% in the first half of 2010. Excluding the <br />gain on redemption of own debt and the provision in respect of PPI, the cost:income ratio was <br />unchanged at 69.1%.<br /><br />Do rising costs = no preferred divvy?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-54571726002086915072011-12-16T22:55:44.536+00:002011-12-16T22:55:44.536+00:00shoot me an email (it is in the profile), bit easi...shoot me an email (it is in the profile), bit easier to communicate.<br /><br />I had a quick look at the prospectus of the dollar prefs guessing that the series C was what you were looking at. What I would really like to look through is a risk report and balance sheet for the NatWest sub.<br /><br />NatWest franchise seems pretty decent, my family still have their current accounts with them, not that that is a huge credit endorsement, but I don't think they have lost depositors because of the crisis.<br /><br />The BoE numbers and RBS's exposures to peripherals mainly are in Ireland. I would imagine though that they come from their subsid Ulster Bank, rather than a huge bet at the group level.<br /><br />I'll have a look at the EBA exposures report, the country and bucketed breakdown is more useful than the conclusion.<br /><br />I think this might be an ok trade actually.BlackRavenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05896472586470597474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-49060365741379167072011-12-16T19:54:03.244+00:002011-12-16T19:54:03.244+00:00Yes, I have a prospectus. Prospectus: "Divid...Yes, I have a prospectus. Prospectus: "Dividends on Series C Preference Shares are payable out of distributable profits of the Bank in US dollars" the rest is standard language and US tax consequences. NatWest has paid quarterly divvys since the crisis of 2008/2009. They strike as in a similar position as BofA in the US. What's the strength of NatWest's underlying deposit franchise is my main concern. RBS has stepped in to capitalize NatWest. Will NatWest be profitable as it unwinds from its past problems and will it make a profit, i.e. pay preferred divvys, with the Euro crisis?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-81516060748876969982011-12-15T23:57:54.019+00:002011-12-15T23:57:54.019+00:00do you have a prospectus of the issue? because the...do you have a prospectus of the issue? because the capital structure is going to be absolutely key!BlackRavenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05896472586470597474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-14572402286705032812011-12-15T19:03:14.343+00:002011-12-15T19:03:14.343+00:00Thank you for your response. I'm an American ...Thank you for your response. I'm an American investor researching the NatWest preferred shares currently at an 11.2% dividend yield. I've read that the issue is "ring-fenced" against the original issuing entity it must still be paid so long as that unit is profitable, even if the parent is not. <br />Is that true? <br />NatWest has 17X leverage ratio and an above Basel Core Tier 1 cap percentage; however, I read that recent BoE report, "UK banks do have significant total exposures to the private sectors in Ireland, Italy and Spain, of around £160 billion, or 80% of core Tier 1 capital. UK banks are also indirectly exposed through their lending to core euro-area banking systems." I don't know if NatWest's core Tier 1 is at risk or if that hinders their ability to pay the prefs' dividends. I see them as a profitable deposit franchise regardless and your comment about the base is stickier b/c of the UK govt ownership, makes it seem more likely they'll be around in 5-10 years paying dividends. Hard for me value or ascertain the risk. Anything else to look at the value NatWest? Best, kwgAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-42021928367628473752011-12-15T01:03:19.309+00:002011-12-15T01:03:19.309+00:00It is a question of how much damage that does to t...It is a question of how much damage that does to the shareholder's investment and whether that is in the price?<br /><br />I don't have a view as whether their assets will perform any better or worse, they do have plenty of exposure to Ireland though. Their advantage is that their depositor base must be a little bit stickier than comps because of the government stake.<br /><br />I think there are easier trades to do and even if you decided you did think there was decent value in RBS there probably will be better entry points + you have a lot of government overhang and risk associated with that.BlackRavenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05896472586470597474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-62987265333540829262011-12-14T23:37:35.221+00:002011-12-14T23:37:35.221+00:00Nice breakdown. What do you think of RBS' pro...Nice breakdown. What do you think of RBS' prospects now? Will they survive the breakup of the Euro? Will they ever pay dividends? Should I buy their preferred shares now? Thx.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-43984180376262504232011-12-11T18:14:06.512+00:002011-12-11T18:14:06.512+00:00I think next year could be brutal. Interesting to ...I think next year could be brutal. Interesting to see how things are slightly swinging the other way in terms of media commentary though;<br /><br />http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/an-inadequate-arsenal-for-a-currency-in-grave-danger-2960263.html<br /><br />and<br /><br />http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2011/12/britain-and-eu-2BlackRavenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05896472586470597474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-54360088698188979802011-12-10T11:06:35.712+00:002011-12-10T11:06:35.712+00:00Quite. All is sophistry and obscufation, sadly thi...Quite. All is sophistry and obscufation, sadly this points to Armageddon next year.CityUnslickerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15929544047783163175noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-13522422928926381772011-08-16T20:04:04.759+01:002011-08-16T20:04:04.759+01:00my point is simply that 'valuations' are n...my point is simply that 'valuations' are not a good predictor of future returns.<br /><br />for the whole of the 90s valuations would have said that US stocks were expensive, not the nasdaq but the s&p500. you would have missed out on an enormous bull market. you would also have loaded during the 30s and in 2007.<br /><br />japanese valuations got out of hand, but again if you had used p/e's you would have missed out on a huge bull run, and then invested after the bubble had burst and suffered losses.<br /><br />using the ERP is even worse in my opinion, right now there are two things that are clear;<br />1) bond markets are saying there is a substantial risk to growth, and odds on we see deflation - which is very negative for stocks. if interest rates were 5% and we had a 15 p/e I would be much happier buying stocks.<br />2) the "E" is a risky number, and right now it looks very inflated, profit margins are very fat, and they do tend to mean revert.<br />3) its not a choice just between bonds or stocks.BlackRavenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05896472586470597474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-84987772390557352282011-08-16T02:52:21.331+01:002011-08-16T02:52:21.331+01:00Where did Japanese p/e yields begin from at the st...Where did Japanese p/e yields begin from at the start of the crisis though? Wasn't their stock market on a p/e ratio of 100 or something?<br /><br />Likewise the dotcom bubble. Many good quality blue chips have increased their profitability and strengthened their balance sheets through the crisis.<br /><br />Now they are yielding 10%+. If you had money you didn't need for 10 years would you buy blue chip stocks or government bonds?Steven_Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05029437876479574883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-20264639219635534142011-08-09T03:20:07.612+01:002011-08-09T03:20:07.612+01:00What about picking tops? Gilt futures look toppy ...What about picking tops? Gilt futures look toppy and STIRS have gone into backwardisation.<br /><br />Can't be much downside shorting either of those?<br /><br />I'm on exile marketwise until September, then I'm back with my new cityindex account which gives me options for the first time.<br /><br />Could be interesting, well done catching the move, bloody well wish I had.Steven_Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05029437876479574883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-5201738810800762292011-07-29T00:26:02.837+01:002011-07-29T00:26:02.837+01:00what is Merve going to do? unwind QE in your face?...what is Merve going to do? unwind QE in your face? doubt it. I think it would be relatively easy to gun GBP and gilts actually, especially as the twat seems to have so many days off watching the cricket...TheRavenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04283848251928531247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-61763448967204438022011-07-28T03:35:25.725+01:002011-07-28T03:35:25.725+01:00I can see #6 happening, it can only be a matter of...I can see #6 happening, it can only be a matter of time but surely most people are (quite sensibly) afraid of taking on a central bank?Steven_Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05029437876479574883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-25597268937161220722011-07-12T07:56:51.924+01:002011-07-12T07:56:51.924+01:00why not have a smaller position and wider stop?
g...why not have a smaller position and wider stop?<br /><br />give yourself a really long and difficult random password, that'll make it harder to log in?<br /><br />i think you've got some good experience from those trades, what more can you squeeze out of them?BlackRavenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05896472586470597474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-32766163550459100302011-07-12T00:33:07.967+01:002011-07-12T00:33:07.967+01:00No, so that I didn't get what's left of my...No, so that I didn't get what's left of my capital spreads account and some more wiped out in the middle of the night. The £800 I had in there lasted me 16 months. It went straight down to £91 and I had it back over £700 at one stage this year. But placed some awful trades, like shorting cotton right near the top but with too smaller stop loss. If I'd used my whole margin I would have made a few thousand buck on that one. I had $12,000 worth of silver in my cfd account at $30 or so before the spike and predicted $50 over at C@W as one of my new year predictions. I closed that $300 up within 24 hours drunk. That one has had me pissed all summer, could have made $7k.<br /><br />I'm going back to a normal dealing account, or maybe even a cash ISA for a few months while I repair my balance sheet. I'm a useless spread better. Can't hold the winners and place angry trades when I'm drunk.Steven_Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05029437876479574883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-19703070895021341282011-07-11T23:28:20.017+01:002011-07-11T23:28:20.017+01:00did you put the stop in so that you could have a b...did you put the stop in so that you could have a bigger position size?BlackRavenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05896472586470597474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-63093043274012998162011-07-11T21:48:19.596+01:002011-07-11T21:48:19.596+01:00666 sorry.666 sorry.Steven_Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05029437876479574883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-64593126598129450442011-07-11T21:47:20.066+01:002011-07-11T21:47:20.066+01:00I grabbed it at £3/point today at 702p as valuatio...I grabbed it at £3/point today at 702p as valuation looked good on the recent results.<br /><br />That dip this afternoon triggered by guaranteed stop at 366 though! Darn.Steven_Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05029437876479574883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-64194127358572480882011-06-30T14:58:06.541+01:002011-06-30T14:58:06.541+01:00that is a good shoutthat is a good shoutBlackRavenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05896472586470597474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2701343700017476108.post-56606849258999640532011-06-29T19:50:08.135+01:002011-06-29T19:50:08.135+01:00I'm surprised no private investors have tried ...I'm surprised no private investors have tried suing Mr Applegarth, Sir Fred etc for deceit to be honest.<br /><br />I'd have given it a crack if I was within the small claims limit and had lost out.Steven_Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05029437876479574883noreply@blogger.com