Thursday, 2 April 2009


L: 12% S:27% G: 40% N: -15% ~ $D -15% $G 15% $V 0% $P 2%

The Raven was short and really felt the squeeze, both on the US reversal and the overnight exuberance. He picked up a little more gamma and delta from his upside calls, although has reduced that. He also closed some of his US shorts in the midst of the squeeze. Given the beating his portfolio should have taken some short term speculation in the EUR/USD was just the medicine this morning as it seemed to have lagged the equity fizz. It'll be interesting to see what the Yanks do as they come in this morning as we seem to be at a short term critical point in the market.

What is confusing the Raven is that he can't believe that this froth is all due to the economic data yesterday or the UK housing market 80bps rise (given the error and strong trend he's more than skeptical), thus he's gobsmacked that this is purely optimism that there will be some magic silver bullet to come out of the G20? He fails to see how regulation is going to be the tonic that ends the recession, or that seeing more pictures of Crash Gordon flashing that hideous smile with a world leader on his arm at every opportunity is going to fix the drop in demand and trade that the global economy is facing (yes, the Raven chose to use the word global, even though old Gordo seems to think he has a monopoly on it when talking about problems). Perhaps the market is behaving as it has before any anticipated announcement of a plan in the US, ie trade up as the shorts cover and spec longs, then once the news is out crater? We'll find out how much the market likes a tantrum from little Sarkozy or a wave of airy fairy plans for regulation? oh and doubling the IMF, hmmm thats going to help....

So the plan today is to watch and increase shorts if we start to fade this rally, after all the Raven remains short term bearish, even if the trend is against him, and to punt the EUR to try and ease the pain of this squeeze.

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