L: 54% S:32% G: 87% N: 22% ~ $D -15% $G 118% $V 1% $P 1%
The Raven is impressed with the market reaction to swine flu. Its always going to initially panic and open down given the weekend media, however the opening trades in NYC have been a relatively rational reaction, both differenciation and rallying back to unchanged. Its also interesting to see that only one bank will need more capital from the stress test in the US, The Raven thinks thats perhaps the most bullish outcome, ie. a failure to give the test some sort of validity, but not multiple failures so as to panic the market. There will be speculation as to who that is until those details are released next week. Its also very interesting to see that there is almost zero market chatter about it?
The Raven picked up some XOM at the end of last week at a decent level, it remains a very cheap stock and has lagged both spot and the service companies, he's speculating that its lagged due to its defencesive status, size and lack of beta, so has been shifted out of in the last couple of weeks, much like VOD in the UK, which is up nicely today.
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