Tuesday, 17 March 2009

time to put the jack back in the box?

L: 19% S:25% G: 45% N: -6% ~ $D 19% $G 2% $V 0% $P 1%

A couple of things have caught the Raven's eye this morning. It appears that the SPX didn't manage to break the 776 level last night and got whacked into the close. Thats a really really ugly technical signal and was the top level the Raven was looking for in this rally. Interesting that the UK financials are a little lower at the start of the day. The Raven is tempted to climb in there and pile on some HSBC shorts, but he'd like to see the price move a little more as the borrow is quite high so the timing has to be spot on.

Interesting to note though the amount of fuss over AIG FPs bonus payments, funny that this becomes the political scrutiny rather than the payments made to states, or those to European banks. Obviously they were the point of the rescue, but the $100bn payoff is a lot more important than the $0.1bn retention bonus. This is not to say that the Raven thinks that this cash wasn't necessary as $100bn of counterparty risk could have really damaged the system.

There is talk about Geithner announcing a 'systematic risk' regulator, sounds like a complete load of nonsense. The G-20 grandstanding was a complete waste of time, the world's political elite have stood by and failed to grasp that Paulson's initial plan was the best idea we've had and we are going to return to it now. Obama's first 50 days have been wasted, the fact there are something like 17 (the Raven thinks it might be 19) full time posts unfilled at the Treasury, that the UK have complained that their calls to the Treasury have remained literally unanswered is an absolute disgrace. Especially after making the economy the central issue upon which he campained, its not like he had to take power the day after winning a shock victory. Far better to kick up a public storm over retention bonuses, stuffing the stimulus full of pork and spend the time wagging his finger at the previous administration than actually get down to business.

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