Thursday, 19 March 2009

a bit of context

Its interesting to notice how much we have rallied here and market exposure now appears to be a gamble on whether QE works or not. There is a lot of commentary that QE has never worked in "200 years of policy history", the Raven doesn't think that historical comparisons really are that valid given how rapid the FED's reaction have been, or the size of this action. Ben's Big Bazooka may well have the capacity to unblock the U-bend, we are still going to be reliant on consumers to change their risk appetite, be they in Asia or in the US, we are going to need to see a change in demand. With unemployment already ~8% its a hard call. Given all of that of course the market is going to lead. Its also interesting to think that this Bazooka is $1trn, given that China's was $2trn over the boom.

The Raven is also pretty sick of people calling this 'printing money', ultimately its an asset swap, the Fed pays out $1trn but gets $1trn of assets onto its balance sheet, yes its improving liquidity and repricing risk, both of which are really second order effects.

The Raven remains short of HSBC, although he covered a little clip first thing this morning as it traded lower on weaker demand in Hong Kong. BARC and JPM have massively outperformed.

Jobless numbers could be interesting, although the Raven doubts it, especially given the noise and adjustment in them.

The Raven is keeping his beady eye on the EUR/USD given its proximity to the 200d ma.

Oh - and what the hell is Obama doing going on Jay Leno tomorrow night? It is disrespectful to the office and a real shame that he is prepared to devalue the status of the President of the USA in order for a small boost in the polls given his already high approval rating.

L: 28% S:45% G: 73% N: -16% ~ $D 27% $G 2% $V 0% $P 2% (just in case you thought that the Raven might not be keeping himself honest)

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