Wednesday, 18 March 2009


L: 34% S:41% G: 76% N: -7% ~ $D 33% $G 2% $V 0% $P 3%

The Raven had a relatively good day given his large equity short pre-Bernanke. The size of which was enough to get the bulls excited again. There hasn't been a negative voice on TV for the last week, with plenty of talk about new buyers coming into the market, and the need not to miss this opportunity. The other point of interest is the number of comments on the valuation of the market and increasingley bullish expectations for Q1 earnings. This relative euphoria makes the Raven bearish BUT yes valuations are cheap, especially vs 10y treasuries, yes Bernanke is chopper Ben and he's going to save the day therefore the Raven is going to stay close to shore and keep the outright risk balanced or appropriately small/short term.

Oracle came out with .35 eps vs the streets .31 estimate, they noted that if it wasn't for FX moves they believe they'd have done .40 for the quarter. They've also started to pay a .05 div for the first time ever, stock was up ~6% after market.

Rather fortunately the EUR/USD positions paid off more than enough to cover the loss on his stocks today. We are now back at the 200d ma and the Raven has taken the position off, as well as flattening his delta. There could well be some follow through, especially after the move in 10yr rates ~ 3% -> 2.5% is huge, but its not like QE is a surprise, or something the Raven wasn't expecting from chopper Ben.

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