Tuesday, 24 March 2009


L: 8% S:28% G: 36% N: -20% ~ $D 0% $G 0% $V 0% $P 0%

Its interesting to see the difference in the RPI and CPI in the UK today and how much of that is caused by increasing food prices. This is surprising given the inputs to food pricing. It was also interesting to listen to Swervin' Mervyn today explain how they came up with the £75bn QE number from, in that they were just looking to increase the money supply by 5%, also interesting to note that he wasn't sure what multiplier should be attached to this injection of money, he even implied that it may be <1. Its interesting to see where EUR/GBP is trading given that. He also reiterated how much global trade had fallen. He did make the Raven laugh though when responding to a question from the committee : "what's the difference between QE buying assets and printing money and throwing it out of a helicopter?" (paraphrased). with a look of shock "uhmmm because you get the ASSETS????"

The Raven is cautiously short, he knows that its too early, but a 7% rally seemed a far too large a reaction to a plan that most market participants had already heard of?

EUR/USD looks like an interesting level again and the Raven is keeping involved short term which has been profitable.

Its also nice to hear that GS wants to return governments money ASAP, and they are outperforming today. You've got to think getting the government out of the running of their business is a real positive given the quality of intellect in the US congress.

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