Wednesday, 11 March 2009

So what happens now?

L: 50% S:7% G: 58% N: 43% ~ $D 19% $G 49% $V 0% $P 1%

The Raven has trimmed a lot of his long exposure that he accumulated yesterday from his rather for fortuitous purchase of some upside calls and intraday momentum trading with JPM, which he sold on the close because he's a real sissy.

He also shorted some HSBC and bought some more BARC, this trade makes sense to him on a valuation perspective and the massive cash call that HSBC has just made. The company itself has said that it would be volatile. HSBC still remains a rock solid credit in the Raven's eyes and this capital raising will bolster the balance sheet. His view is that longer term they will suffer excess cautiousness in any potential rebound and are still going to be hurt by household, there also remains the potential for a much sharper downturn in Asia than is currently being anticipated and this will definitely hurt future profits.

The Raven topped up on some LAD yesterday as it lagged the surge, although its not been dragged down with the rest of the market. He really does think its a cracking firm as its core income remains relatively stable through this recession, its only the highly volatile high-roller spend thats been hit, puting a value of zero on this part of the business it still looks very cheap. The worry for the Raven has been that they would struggle to refinance their debt, as this hasn't been a problem so far and they've kept a nice chunky dividend. Long term it does face some risks from a move to greater internet betting and that they fail to migrate their franchise effectively online and there is always the government that could screw things up (but then when isn't that the case in life!).

He's still doing his work on Eurotunnel, he was all over this badbody when it was going through restructuring but its popped up on his screen again as its just initiated a dividend which is always a positive sign.

The Raven heard a great quote this morning that did make him chuckle : "trading against the trend isn't contrarian", its a very pithy and illuminating quote.

1) Does QE stop deflation?
2) How much excess capacity is really out there?
3) What is a true measure of the money supply in the economy when all the linkages don't work?

hmmmmm - coffee time.

No comments:

Post a Comment