Tuesday, 23 June 2009

too much summer sun for the green shoots?

L: 23% S:54% G: 77% N: -31% ~ $D 0% $G 0% $V 0% $P 0%

The Raven knows this is going to be an interesting week for Macro figures, the technical situation in the market has reversed, with things have a lot more of a negative tone as of yesterday, but without a big volume pickup (~+20% more volume than a normal Monday). Its alos interesting to note Director selling, usually a bearish signal, in addition FX moves that match those in the commodity space, perhaps indicating that the Chinese reflation trade has run out of steam. The Raven is therefore watching the RIO rights issue with interest, as well as the market reaction to XTA/AAL (Xstrata and AngloAmericans) merger talks. He's increased his shorts in PUB as well as adding a chunky short in MCO (a ratings agency), it looks technically to have run out of steam and going forwards one has to agree with Einhorn's excellent analysis, that the AAA rating 'ain't wot it used to be'. The Raven remains short the NOK, and long some T10yrs, as well as long the WYE/PFE deal.

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