Tuesday, 16 June 2009


L: 66% S:1% G: 66% N: 65% ~ $D -1% $G 1380% $V 4% $P 0%

The Raven has been relatively quiet over the last week or so, the market has needed some careful attention, with lots of opportunities for short term trading (more short term than usualy for the Raven, several times intraday). He's also reduced some profitable trades taking some money off the table in some long risk long term positions.

He's found the 10yr Treasuries particularly interesting and has been jobbing these agressively from the long side, yielding a good level of risk reward pnl. The interesting change in sentiment this week has occured, commodities and the short USD trade is starting to smell like a stale trade. long SPX as well; looking to have limited upside and trading in a tight range, the Raven has a feeling the next move will be lower, although doesn't want to pay theta for this position (hence long the 10yr position).

On the macro front the economist was interesting this week with a special section on government debt, which the Raven is still yet to properly digest. Funny that the BRIC meeting today has been nothing but posturing, funny that given the fact they can't decide whether they want to talk the dollar up or down. The Raven understands the predicament, a stronger USD means more exports, it also means a positive MTM on their 'investments' of $3trn, however this just builds up a longer term problem. China really can't have it both ways, its got to have a free floating currency if it wants the US to borrow in it.

The NRG deal looks to be trading for a bump, whereas the WYE deal looks good value to the Raven at this level still.

He's also looking at RIO quite carefully.

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