L: 66% S:1% G: 66% N: 65% ~ $D -1% $G 1380% $V 4% $P 0%
The Raven has been relatively quiet over the last week or so, the market has needed some careful attention, with lots of opportunities for short term trading (more short term than usualy for the Raven, several times intraday). He's also reduced some profitable trades taking some money off the table in some long risk long term positions.
He's found the 10yr Treasuries particularly interesting and has been jobbing these agressively from the long side, yielding a good level of risk reward pnl. The interesting change in sentiment this week has occured, commodities and the short USD trade is starting to smell like a stale trade. long SPX as well; looking to have limited upside and trading in a tight range, the Raven has a feeling the next move will be lower, although doesn't want to pay theta for this position (hence long the 10yr position).
On the macro front the economist was interesting this week with a special section on government debt, which the Raven is still yet to properly digest. Funny that the BRIC meeting today has been nothing but posturing, funny that given the fact they can't decide whether they want to talk the dollar up or down. The Raven understands the predicament, a stronger USD means more exports, it also means a positive MTM on their 'investments' of $3trn, however this just builds up a longer term problem. China really can't have it both ways, its got to have a free floating currency if it wants the US to borrow in it.
The NRG deal looks to be trading for a bump, whereas the WYE deal looks good value to the Raven at this level still.
He's also looking at RIO quite carefully.
Tuesday, 16 June 2009
Thursday, 4 June 2009
chart fodder
L: 88% S:12% G: 100% N: 76% ~ $D -12% $G 44% $V 1% $P 0%
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/mega-bear-SP-now-and-68-real-large.gif
This chart makes interesting viewing, given the long period of sideways movement between years 6 to 14. The Raven would also be interested to know what inflation was over this period and what the real returns would have been over that period of time. Politically it certainley smells similar with an increase in union power and political influence. It certainley makes the point very clearly that one should not be investing in such a way that he risk government theft, exposure to legacy costs, union demands, etc.
DDUP is trading above EMC's offer by 10%, thats a pretty heavy premium and implies a big comeback big from NTAP. The Raven has no idea at all what a rational price for such a business.
The Raven also notes the price action on the 200dma for the SPX, he expect it to trade rather technically in this region and it will certainley be interesting to see any reaction that pushes it away from this pivot on tomorrows jobs data.
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/mega-bear-SP-now-and-68-real-large.gif
This chart makes interesting viewing, given the long period of sideways movement between years 6 to 14. The Raven would also be interested to know what inflation was over this period and what the real returns would have been over that period of time. Politically it certainley smells similar with an increase in union power and political influence. It certainley makes the point very clearly that one should not be investing in such a way that he risk government theft, exposure to legacy costs, union demands, etc.
DDUP is trading above EMC's offer by 10%, thats a pretty heavy premium and implies a big comeback big from NTAP. The Raven has no idea at all what a rational price for such a business.
The Raven also notes the price action on the 200dma for the SPX, he expect it to trade rather technically in this region and it will certainley be interesting to see any reaction that pushes it away from this pivot on tomorrows jobs data.
Tuesday, 2 June 2009
well they did it...
The Raven hasn't posted for the last couple of days because frankly there hasn't been much to say, his portfolio hasn't changed, and the news flow is as expected, as is the markets reaction.
L: 86% S:13% G: 99% N: 72% ~ $D -13% $G 38% $V 1% $P 0%
Interesting stuff happening in M&A space, EMC has come in and bid $30 for Data Domain, which is ~20% premium to the previous bid by NetApp, more work and comment to come on this. To note though was that Data Domain was trading through the bid terms before EMC announced, so this was expected by the market, in addition its trading now through the EMC bid ~$30.5, indicating the markets looking for NetApp to come back with a counter. The Raven wonders where the top bid is and what makes sense for each of them, also the potential for antitrust?
On a similar flavour NRG is trading throught the EXC bid, perhaps the market is epxecting a bump, the Raven is long and will continue to hold the position as NRG looks like a pretty cheap asset.
and what did 'they' do? well they is the UAW, and yes they destroyed all shareholder value at GM, bondholder value and tax payer value. round of applause....
L: 86% S:13% G: 99% N: 72% ~ $D -13% $G 38% $V 1% $P 0%
Interesting stuff happening in M&A space, EMC has come in and bid $30 for Data Domain, which is ~20% premium to the previous bid by NetApp, more work and comment to come on this. To note though was that Data Domain was trading through the bid terms before EMC announced, so this was expected by the market, in addition its trading now through the EMC bid ~$30.5, indicating the markets looking for NetApp to come back with a counter. The Raven wonders where the top bid is and what makes sense for each of them, also the potential for antitrust?
On a similar flavour NRG is trading throught the EXC bid, perhaps the market is epxecting a bump, the Raven is long and will continue to hold the position as NRG looks like a pretty cheap asset.
and what did 'they' do? well they is the UAW, and yes they destroyed all shareholder value at GM, bondholder value and tax payer value. round of applause....
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