Wednesday, 22 July 2009

what a difference a day makes....

L: 151% S:11% G: 162% N: 140% ~ $D 0% $G 0% $V 0% $P 0%

thats a huge swing in net and gross exposure for the Raven since yesterdays post. NRG traded down hard on the open of the US market, the Raven took this as an opportunity to dramatically increase his position. At the same time MCO opened up slightly, whereas the Raven's charts said it was a screaming sell so he dramatically increased his short position. Both of these events were remarkably fortunate given the price action which followed; NRG trading up 7% from the Raven's purchase price in the matter of an hour and MCO falling 5%, which put a nice chunk of profit on the table for the day, month and year for that matter. In response to this the Raven covered his short in MCO and will look to scale back into a small short if it opens up today. On the other hand he decided to let his bet ride with NRG, technicals look good and the stock still looks cheap, its a good thing that the vulture like bid from EXC was rejected by shareholders. There are some worries in the back of his head with some counter arguments; management don't have their feet to the fire so perhaps won't feel the pressure to perform, or perhaps they've been distracted and now have the opportunity to refocus on operations. The Raven thinks managements been focussed so perhaps there is room for them to slip. Its still in the mixer.

The Raven is also looking at other EXC targets and power generation assets, at the moment he's looking at MIR, he doesn't think its a fit for EXC - but it looks optically cheap so is worth a poke at least.

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