Wednesday, 8 July 2009

earnings season

L: 53% S:73% G: 126% N: -20% ~ $D 0% $G 0% $V 0% $P 0%

The VIX still looks like its at an interesting level, the Raven is looking at perhaps picking up some put spreads and then pushing the rest of the book to flat delta.

Interesting article in the Times today from Vince Cable, he's basically saying that because we now own RBS, NR, etc we should be making them increase lending to help the economy and for some reason his implication is that by being state owned these banks are now safe and that these loans would be riskless? He's also very populist and doesn't mention any of the real causes of the crises, but then he is a politician so the Raven doesn't really expect any more.

Interesting to see that we didn't hold the support levels in the SPX, however we've failed to see any real follow through and the volume picture remains puzzling, it is "summer" after all. (just look at the weather in London). Its also the first day of the Ashes, which the Raven still thinks the Aussies have a great chance of holding on to, its also the start of the US earnings season; and where they'll be is anyone's guess, as to how the market will read them, well the Raven feels that investors are more likely to be disappointed that positively surprised, so he's happy to remain short with the price action backing him up. He's also happy to be long USD right now.

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