Tuesday, 7 July 2009


L: 18% S:36% G: 54% N: -17% ~ $D 0% $G 0% $V 0% $P 0%

The Raven has been relatively quiet (on the posting front), but relatively busy on the short term trading front. The 888 level in the SPX looks like a pretty key resistance level, the Raven is betting on it not holding. He's mainly short MCO, as going forward the business model doesn't make sense, the stocks been all over the place today, is still up on the day, but thanks to short term vol he's still up a decent amount.

EXC has sweetened it terms for NRG. The Raven notes that NRG has government backing and cash for nuclear participation, whereas EXC doesn't, he thinks that NRG is very undervalued, whereas EXC is marginally cheap, he's long NRG and looking to increase his position if it comes to his level, he definitely wouldn't be accepting the EXC deal, even though its offering an ok-ish merger arb spread. He thinks management have done a pretty decent job, hopes they keep their eyes on business execution and smart shareholders value the business correctly.

He covered the majority of his PUB short yesterday, thats just trading around the position, he was tempted to put it back on as it was up 4% today, which is a dead cat bounce in the Raven's eyes. He's still in the double dip camp, and all this talk about property bouncing is just nonsense, its still overvalued and no amount of rah rah rubbish from Foxton branded tits is going to change how expensive property still is, how much rents could still fall from unemployment.

PFE/WYE still looks interesting, especially the PFE leg as a long, he's sniffing.

He also traded some miners last night, liquidity provision as such, flipping them today. They're interesting and certainley worth picking over, perhaps for some relative value.

He's also doing a lot of work on optimal positioning and balance sheet optionality in a "quiet" summer time...

No comments:

Post a Comment