Wednesday, 27 May 2009

some interesting numbers

L: 83% S:37% G: 120% N: 46% ~ $D -37% $G 16% $V 0% $P 2%
In this article the Raven thought it was particularly interesting to look at the size and scale of the medicare and social security nettles that future tax payers will have to grasp. These numbers are enormous, as are the pension liabilities that the public sector has built up in the UK, there needs to be radical reform ASAP. These numbers look even more worrying given that ~100% debt to GDP ratio in the UK and the worry as to what an increasing tax burden will do to long term growth rates in the West.

Interesting to watch the turnaround from yesterday's consumer confidence numbers continue today. As expected with the rally vol has come off a little and some of the higher beta names have outperformed. The Raven remains cautiously invested at this point and is again paying away theta, with the risks in the portfolio minimal at present, in fact the Raven thinks the portfolio doesn't have enough money making potential and so is looking for new ideas today.

The Raven would make a bet that its Fiat that ends up with Opel, but not in a particular rush, the German's don't really want to deal with this issue before the election, especially if there are any ugly job cut details that would have to be public. Shock! GM bondholders didn't accept a 10% stake in the company, funny that!

On the world political stage its important not to overplay the importance of N. Korea, they are isolated and the Raven is sure that the Chinese won't let them throw their toys out of the cot too much right now. Ok the threat is scary and very real within the region, but it shouldn't be too much of a demand shock for the rest of the world to deal with given the export driven nature of the SK economy.

No comments:

Post a Comment