Wednesday, 6 May 2009

back in the saddle

L: 98% S:7% G: 106% N: 91% ~ $D -7% $P 0%

The Raven is back in the saddle after the long weekend, with a quick update to the portfolio, he's added some risk in the form of Deutsche Boerse, EMC, Ladbrokes and IP2IPO. He's not added to his collection of worthless downside puts as he's 'invested' enough premium in those for the last couple of weeks. It does however feel as if at least the market has run out of a little steam.

He's also been picking over the M&A space, the Wyeth deal looks attractive enough at a 20% IRR for the position, he's put on a small position and is doing some more work on the deal, but at first glance it looks attractive enough. He's also sure that he's making some sort of mistake with the PepsiCo bottling deals, they seem to be trading for a bump? not sure how that one works, given the size of the stake that PEP already owns and that the company is doing this opportunistically it doesn't make sense that they would entertain raising their offer or being strong armed? he's not got the stones to short the deal as the upside isn't there given the kind of event risk & he's got a feeling that he must have the deal terms wrong.

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