Thursday, 28 May 2009

is this the same as a UK prepackaged bankrupcy?

If its anything like that then the Raven really isn't very impressed. How will the asset prices be determined? will there be an open auction? (doubt it!!!) how will the proceeds of the sale be handled by the bankrupcy court? what does that mean for the union contracts? who will own the new equity capital and provide financing? to the Raven this stinks, it sounds like a way to bend over the bondholders and sidestep contract law, funny what was it that the President Obama studied?

Intraday vol is pretty interesting here, the Raven feels like his performance is well hedged even though the greeks look like he's long.

Einhorn likes buying gold, he's a smart cookie and the Raven will probably be eating his words, but he doesn't buy the inflation story. The amount of wealth and capital sucked out of the system added to the excess capacity that's been build over the last couple of years and is still coming on line just doesn't make an inflationary environment. Saying this the Raven believes that the dollar vs RMB does have to revalue, so consumer price inflation may well rise in the US as chinese goods become more expensive and US exports become cheaper. If its a backdoor short of the USD then it makes sense. It adds a little more to the EUR/USD story.

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