Tuesday, 23 August 2011

why didn't anyone look at the SMP balance yesterday?

well I didn't check how much the ECB bought of peripheral debt last week, and I didn't see any market chatter on the matter. The week before however there were millions of comments on that the ECB were out there buying €22bn.

Last week they clearly took it a little easier and only bought €14bn.

I think they only had/have the appetite to double the SMP, so they have €130bn of powder.

They don't expect to be buying once the EFSF is operational, although its not entirely clear to me when that will be, at first glance the earliest is in 4 weeks time, but it could be later.

That leaves them with €94bn. Which means they have the capacity to do €23.5bn a week.

OR they actually expect it to be longer, as the ECB clearly prefer the shock and awe approach. Their steady state approach will probably be more like the 14bn they did last week, which implies EFSF buying starting in 6weeks time.

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