jackson hole

at the beginning of the week it was easy for some people to think that other people thought there would be one of these;

but anyone reading anything finance related will have realized that Bernanke is not going to play ball tomorrow, no dice.

there are not the same signs of deflation to justify the launch of QE3.

there is however the risk that Bernanke says the economy is weak and that they are keeping an eye on it. saying this would be a policy mistake in my view, even if that is what he thought. we have seen before the the market fears these sorts of comments because they think Bernanke can see lemons they don't have the data to see.

Bernanke is not a mug, i don't think he will make that mistake tomorrow, and therefore i think there is upside risk.

to balance that, today's price action was fugly.