Friday, 3 June 2011

another potential chinese fraud;

without commenting on the company in particular, its another example of a potential fraud. It was striking reading an FT alphaville article quoting a Chinese 'expert' saying that he saw long term problems for China, medium term problems, but had faith in the government to engineer a soft landing. There has been an enormous shift in media and 'expert' thinking that has blind faith in the Chinese government and the Chinese development model.

US officials have decades of experience and collective wisdom managing a market economy, one which is smaller, has more transparent and reliable data, yet one would be called mad if one were to place that level of faith in the US government to guarantee a soft landing. Or even more absurdly, that the Fed could fine tune the economy by setting interest rates to the nearest 0.01% (Chinese base rate is the absurdly precise 6.31%), when the Fed has to move in 25bp increments at least.

Fraud typically really starts to accumulate in the late stages of a bubble....

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