Wednesday, 4 August 2010

STX translation of WDC comments

Given the view the Raven has as to where $WDC should trade (in yesterdays post), then its relatively simple to make the same sort of read across in valuation terms to $STX given the belief that the "third party" drives margins down to 15% for these two players.

(the Raven is thinking that would be a great name for an activist hedge fund, you wouldn't need to be writing caustic letters with such an ominous name)

Reducing STX margins to 15%, then applying the same prop. adjusted EV/ebitda multiple then a stock price of $7.50 compares to $23. ($28.73 -> $10.67) a lot lower than its current price. Keeping its 3% margin premium that it had to $WDC then you have $9 and $13, so that tells you that the market is expecting them to be able to keep that premium, whether that's wise or not is a much more difficult call to make.

If the Raven is going to be buying anything in the near term future its going to be $WDC rather than $STX.

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