Tuesday, 10 August 2010

$BP, life after the spill?

Now there appears to be some relief in the stock the Raven thought it would be worth having a look at his revised estimates on $BP.

86 days of spill at 60k flow rate = 5.16mm barrels of oil
cost to $BP of clean up $30mm per day, and cleanup lasting another 172days = $8bn
litigation cost = $28bn from Exon Valdez figures inflation adjusted
aditional fines of $22bn from Water agencies etc.
so $58bn all in.
valuing the stock on its historic multiples that would make it worth 425p a share, $40.8 an adr. pretty much bang on where its trading now...

(the Raven does note, that he thinks those cost estimates are too low, especially the litigation cost, given that most estimates are based on the Exxon Valdez figures, which had less human impact than the BP spill, given that its not impossible that the litigation could be more like 3x that figure (but who knows??) in which case the Raven thinks its more like ~ 215p and $20.65, on the other hand there could be m&a as JPM have indicated that could get built into the stock? the one thing the Raven does know, is that there is more action in the name going forward)

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