Wednesday, 21 July 2010

some commentary on numbers today and the Bund& EUR

$AAPL, what a surprise, it beat. stock up ~2-3% after.

$YHOO, one legged, blind dog with flees and partial sight. The Raven was itching to short this but took his eye off the ball, or lacked the stones to make another earnings call as his portfolio has been quite concentrated. (his toothless wonder was doing his best to reduce the range of his hearing) A lame excuse he knows, self flagellation in process...

$GS numbers a little disappointing to the Raven, he was actually expecting it to beat, and it didn't fit with what he thought the revenue would be (in terms of prop desk/fees split). The Raven covered his short just after the open as the tape and orderbook just didn't smell right.

$UAUA he cut his position in half, its had a great move from where he picked it up on Monday when it tracked $DAL falling out of bed.

tomorrow; $AMR, $NFLX, $WFC and $WDC of interest for the Raven.

He's not got trades on any of them, however for choice (gun to your head kind of choice) he'd be short, long, long, long those names.

He's traded around a lot over the last week, but has kept himself 100-200% short, if anything he'd want to increase that position right now, with a very tight stop, but that would just be too crowded and obvious.

The Raven has been scratching his head recently, trying to understand the underperformance of Germany 10yr government bonds, the Bund, which has lagged Gilts and US Treasuries. The only thing the Raven can think of is that the market is expecting more QE from the UK and US, whereas Germany won't participate, whereas looking at the chart above its perhaps more clear that the $EURUSD is the leading indicator for the Bund's relative performance, and that the $EURUSD's return has been linked more Greek headline risk. It would be interesting to see how things moved if there was a return to QE though!

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