Monday, 19 July 2010

earnings commentary

The Raven listened to the 57min or conf call replay for Delta ($DAL), interesting to see the market reaction given the numbers they posted with commentary, a couple of things did stand out to the Raven from his notes;

1) they lost quite a bit of money on "ineffective hedges", which they blamed on FASB rules, ahem excuse me chaps, but hedging jet fuel prices with crude oil is ineffective.

2) merger looks on track

3) they seem to have a lid on capacity

4) margins seem ok, even in Europe given the pricing pressures from FX

5) valuation isn't cracking right now, but, if they continue to pay down debt, it'll look substantially better, especially if they manage to keep a lid on labour costs and capacity issues.

$UAUA (United) numbers tomorrow, the Raven is more bullish this name as he's been trading its credit for years, the valuation looks a lot better and the tie up with $CAL should be "transformative". The way it traded today makes him slightly nervous tomorrow as it managed to close the gap it opened up today, so could easily have some room on the downside.

$GS numbers tomorrow, they will beat for sure, probably by something insane like a $1, however the Raven is still bearish on this stock, in fact on all investment banks as a proposition for shareholders. The Raven has a bone of contention that was raised today over at the motley fool. The Raven would like to expand a little bit on the idea that shareholders don't get enough of a share of the gross operating profits.

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