Thursday, 3 September 2009

a choppy Thursday

Just when he thought it was safe to get back in the water, the short squeeze of a shark reappears. Its been a very choppy week given how tight the real range is and this has been particularly painful for intraday trading. The Raven gave back all his profits in the NZD, and then a little more as interest. However he did enjoy the intraday move in SNDK, which partial compensated.

He's getting murdered in PUB today with it squeezing back 5%, interesting to see that ETI isn't tracking it.

It'll be interesting to see how the US opens today and the way that the market reacts to the jobs numbers. He's got the feeling it'll be the same as it has been for the last 6months, ie bad number up small because that means interest rates are staying lower for longer, of and a good number well then that confirms the hypothesis that we're going to see great growth, in short the market has been clearly saying it wants to go higher and perhaps the Raven has been a little hard of hearing the last couple of months and missed a great opportunity.

He still likes his relative value positions and his M&A spreads so he's going to keep running a tight ship with a few tweaks tighter to hedges so that he spends more time on nailing the small details rather than worrying about how each trade reacts to each tick in the SPX. However this has been a relatively difficult strategy as "value" has clearly been lagging and getting hurt and specultive trades have outperformed ie. the market has been reacting to speculation in changes in earnings rather than caring to much about balance sheets and historic margins, sales volumes, etc. which does feel rather frothy. Perhaps we're in the middle of a large margin expansion where earnings fail to materialize? thats enough spec for one day...

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