Tuesday, 17 February 2009

golden tuesday...

L: 59% S:48% G: 107% N: 10% ~ $D 0% $G 0% $V 0% $P 0%

Gold's at $960 and there are plenty of calls for a retest of the ~$1000 highs of last year, yuck, he's glad not to be involved.

The Raven has been picking over the UK banks this morning. There is a large amount of uncertainty coming from the continual for nationalisation of the UK banking sector and the horrible news coming out of European banks exposures to Central and Eastern Europe. Barclays does appear to look like decent value to Crispin Odey (who incidentally was short UK banks for all of last year). The Raven does like BARC as well, the value of its asset management and wealth businesses are substantial, it seems to the Raven that it appears a cheap call option on the value of credit, speculative, but worth a small gamble at these price levels.

He's also increased his longside exposure to JPM this morning, which was trading down ~10% with the rest of the US banks. At these price and fear levels (VIX~50) the Raven is forcing himself to increase his risk appetite, bad economic data is only confirming what the market price has done for the last 6 months.

EUR/GBP looks interesting, at least GBP seems to have most of its problems out in the open and the panic and fear is priced in, King at least appears to have woken up at the wheel, Trichet is going to go down in history as a fiddler and a fool.

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