Thursday, 28 July 2011

nothing interesting to say, just some personal notes

  1. market very choppy, with a lot of negative expectation now built into the next couple of trading days
  2. any 'value' stock, or event stock that has even slightly come in under the whisper, ie. it might have beat analyst estimate but is below where hot money was wet dreaming for has been decimated, viz $aks, $stx, $mu, and I hope $gt tomorrow.
  3. it has only taken a week for the market to totally discount the EFSF bailout package, although the Greek PM is calling it the first step the an e-bond, Schauble is clearly saying that Greece is a special case. IMHO, as much as it pains me to talk about the market as some independent entity, "they" are going to gun it until there is cold hard cash, signed, sealed, delivered. Its not because of some evil conspiracy, but because holders of debt will slowly get more nervous the more they feel they are relying on political intent rather than legislation.
  4. Earnings commentary out of China has been mixed, half of companies have been very bullish, and half have been neutral, not that I expect corporates to see a hard landing before prices react!!
  5. Vol isn't elevated enough
  6. GBP is a sale, and gilts deserve to be smashed, the market is giving far too much credence to Conservative intentions.


  1. I can see #6 happening, it can only be a matter of time but surely most people are (quite sensibly) afraid of taking on a central bank?

  2. what is Merve going to do? unwind QE in your face? doubt it. I think it would be relatively easy to gun GBP and gilts actually, especially as the twat seems to have so many days off watching the cricket...