Monday, 12 April 2010

EU bailout part deux

He's just noticed that the last post of his was actually about the EU bailout of 3 weeks ago, and the Raven has a few hypothesesesese;

1) Greece is budgeting using a 3% funding rate, hence the reason they are moaning so much about 6% interest rates. That would mean that with their ~130% net debt to GDP they are going to see an additional budget deficit of ~ (6%-3%)*130% = 4%. Which if the Raven were to be right would be larger than the gains they've made from their "austerity" package. Obviously he's being a bit cynical and speculative with that comment, but its entirely possible.

2) The announcement of a €30bn @ 5% loan today actually includes the IMF funds that have been anticipated (€10bn @ 2.7%), that would mean that ... the EU is actually giving €20bn @ 6.15% which would fit more into line as to what Germany has been asking for.

3) These loans do nothing to change the fact that Greece would appear to be insolvent and is just kicking the can down the road. The Raven can't really see a point where they will start to run a surplus, or that staying with the EUR they will suddenly become competitive enough to grow their way out of the hole they're in.

4) That this still appears to be a backstop facility and that the EU haven't actually fired the bazooka, they've just told you how big and how much it cost.

5) The Raven is rather suspicious of France being so insistant that a deal is done, might it have something to do with the fact that its banks have been the biggest lenders to Greece?? non non non of course its just being a good EU neighbour, Sarko would never be so blatantly ridiculously opportunistic.

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